Is Hard Seltzer Bubbling Up or Fizzing Out?

Hard seltzer sales in the United States have grown briskly in recent years, with triple-digit increases in 2019 and 2020. However, sales growth for leading brands was slackening in summer 2021, and questions emerged about how long rapid growth could be sustained. Even as new entrants flooded U.S. and international markets, uncertainty about the segment’s long-term prospects was beginning to build.

Veylinx decided to use its unique behavioral methodology to better understand consumer demand for current top brands, as well as to identify growth opportunities from product innovations. 

Unlike typical surveys in which consumers are simply asked about their preferences, Veylinx predicts how much someone will pay for a product or concept through a proprietary bidding platform using real money. Consumers reveal their true willingness to pay by placing sealed bids on products and then answering follow-up questions about their reasons to buy or not to buy. This approach avoids the hypothetical bias inherent in traditional methods and delivers insights that reflect reality with much higher confidence.

For this study, we chose eight hard seltzer brands to test: AriZona SunRise, Bon V!V, Bud Light, Corona, Smirnoff, Topo Chico, Truly, and White Claw. We evaluated eight added benefits across the brands (high alcohol, low alcohol, vitamins, kombucha, immunity, energy, sustainable packaging, and CBD) to determine which ones consumers value the most, and how they impact demand.

The research discovered that most added benefits drive greater purchase interest from consumers — but with considerable variation across benefits and brands. Adding CBD boosts demand by 12% on average, while enhancing the drinks with kombucha lowers demand by an average of 6%. Other added benefits, like sustainable packaging, show potential for some brands, but not others. For Corona, sustainable packaging boosts demand by 29% — however, it reduces demand for Truly by 23%.

The study found that CBD, Energy, and High-Alcohol product variations perform well across most brands. For Topo Chico, five of the eight added benefits generate higher demand — including CBD, which provides an 18% lift. Every one of the added benefits for Smirnoff and Bon V!V perform better than their existing products. Conversely, while market leader White Claw commands the highest overall demand score, it enjoys no increase for added benefits. However, every other brand we tested had at least one added benefit that boosts demand, confirming that product innovation may be the best route to sustaining continued growth in the category.