The 2025 GRIT Business Outlook reveals permanent market reconfiguration driven by AI adoption, not cyclical downturn. Winners and losers in the insights sector are already separating based on business model architecture.

Tech-led suppliers demonstrate resilience with 74% achieving positive growth, while service-led suppliers struggle significantly. Among service providers, only 32% of smallest firms (≤20 FTE) achieved revenue growth, down from 44% prior year. Mid-market suppliers (101-500 FTE) experienced devastating -21% single-year decline in revenue growth, while large firms (500+ FTE) fell from 63% to 51% revenue growth. Performance achievement rates tell an equally troubling story: 46% of large service-led suppliers exceeded goals versus 74% pre-pandemic, and brand-side researchers exceeding goals declined from 48% to 38%.

Brand-side research budgets reached an all-time low with only 27% reporting increases. Analytics budgets collapsed from 56% to 39%—a devastating 17 percentage point decline. Critically, 34% of brands agree DIY tools significantly reduce reliance on external providers. This represents permanent buyer power shift, not temporary belt-tightening. Pricing leverage has permanently transferred to buyers.

Despite elevated technology spending, investment hasn't translated to performance improvement for service-led suppliers. Tech spending increased for segments even while revenue growth declined, proving that technology investment without business model transformation simply accelerates cash burn. This distinction separates viable acquisition candidates from value traps.

For Suppliers: Scale-or-exit decisions are urgent. Mid-market positioning without differentiation is untenable. Boards must evaluate: (1) acquiring technology for platform positioning, (2) merging with complementary firms, or (3) managed wind-down while enterprise value remains. Additionally, tech-led suppliers must distinguish between "ad hoc directional" work (test & learn, agile research—easily replaced by AI agents) versus "consequential" work (core market measurement, embedded applications—less replaceable).

For Brands: Budget constraints are permanent. Insights leaders must build governance systems enabling safe democratization while maintaining professional value—treating this as operational efficiency rather than threat.

For Investors: Valuation multiples must reflect business model divergence. Tech-led suppliers with 74% growth and platform economics justify premiums, while service-led models require substantial discounts absent transformation paths. Consolidation opportunities exist for creating full-service providers with technology foundations, though execution risk remains substantial.

Bottom Line: Like COVID-19, there is no return to pre-2022 conditions. Organizations adapting to the new reality capture disproportionate value. Those anticipating normalization face a market that no longer exists.