Ghosts of Holiday Research: What Past, Present, and Future Consumer Behavior Reveal

Ebenezer Scrooge may not have worked in market research, but his journey feels uncannily relevant to anyone navigating today’s shifting consumer landscape. Faced with new technologies, evolving rituals, and stakeholder expectations that move at the speed of AI, insights pros could use a visit from a few ghosts themselves.

So gather ’round the fire. The Ghosts of Research Past, Present, and Future have some holiday lessons to share about how Christmas behaviors have changed, why they’re still changing, and what insights teams must do next.

The Ghost of Research Past: When Christmas Behaviors Were Predictable

Before hyper-personalization and next-day shipping, the holiday season unfolded in familiar, reliable patterns. And for researchers, those patterns were a gift.

🎁 The 1950s: The Birth of Modern Holiday Consumerism

The post-war boom laid the foundation for decades of Christmas behavior:

• Local, predictable travel: Families gathered close to home, often just a short drive away.

• Department stores & the Sears “Wish Book”: The original engines of gift discovery.

• Standardized gifting: Toys, appliances, clothing, and home goods dominated.

• Mass media influence: TV and radio defined national holiday culture.

• Research norms: Mail-in surveys, diary studies, and door-to-door interviews collected sentiment slowly, but consistently.

In the 1950s, Christmas was a shared cultural script.

🎄 1990s–2010s: The Comfortable Era of Predictability

Even as decades passed, holiday behavior remained stable:

• Long-distance family travel was the norm.

• Malls became the epicenter of the season—crowded, decorated, and buzzing.

• Gift categories shifted slightly but remained predictable.

• Research methods were traditional: phone surveys, in-person qual, seasonal trackers.

• Year-over-year trends were remarkably steady, making forecasting relatively easy.

The Ghost of Research Past lived in a world where consumer rituals rarely surprised anyone.

The Ghost of Research Present: A Holiday Forever in Flux

Enter today’s era, where hybrid work, inflation, social commerce, and AI reshape holiday behavior faster than ever before. Patterns that held for decades no longer apply and researchers must keep pace.

Travel Behaviors Are Changing

Hybrid work has quietly transformed when—and how—people travel for the holidays.

• Greater flexibility: With more than half of remote-capable employees now hybrid, families aren’t locked into rigid holiday windows. Many leave earlier, stay longer, or work remotely from a relative’s home.

• Rise of “bleisure” trips: Holiday travel increasingly blends work and leisure, leading to longer stays and more “work-from-destination” holiday weeks.

• Flattened peak travel days: Airlines report that holiday surges now spread across a wider range of dates, softening the once-iconic pre-Christmas crunch.

• But flexibility isn’t universal: Economic pressure means many Americans are cutting back. Meaning fewer holiday trips overall and less adults planning to fly or stay in a hotel this season.

The result? A split holiday travel landscape:

• Hybrid-enabled workers traveling more flexibly and creatively

• Others opting for smaller, local gatherings or skipping travel altogether

For insights teams, travel behavior has become more segmented, nuanced, and unpredictable than ever.

Gifting Behaviors Are Evolving

Consumers are shifting away from volume and toward value:

• Fewer total gifts, but more personal or meaningful ones

• Experiences and digital gifts on the rise

• Social commerce driving top-of-funnel discovery

• Buy-Now-Pay-Later tools reshaping holiday budgeting habits

What people buy—and how they decide—is changing rapidly.

Technology Is Rewriting the Seasonal Consumer Journey

Today’s holiday shopping is fundamentally shaped by technology:

• AI-powered forecasting replaces historical trendlines

• Retail media networks influence gift discovery

• Real-time tracking & mobile ethnography capture “in the moment” rituals

• E-commerce & instant delivery expectations compress decision cycles

Stakeholders now expect insights at the speed of the holiday rush.

The Ghost of Research Future: What the Holidays Will Look Like Next

The Ghost of Christmas Future offers a thrilling—and urgent—vision of what comes next.

Hyper-Personalized Holidays

AI can curate individualized holiday experiences, from gift suggestions to travel planning to seasonal entertainment.

Digital Twins & Synthetic Data

Researchers can simulate holiday behavior using virtual personas, synthetic respondents, and rapid modeling environments that outperform traditional sampling, especially in low-incidence groups.

AR/VR Holiday Shopping

Virtual store walkthroughs, AR product previews, and AI gift concierges could redefine browsing and buying.

Frictionless Logistics

Autonomous vehicles, drone delivery, and smart-home preparation could make the idea of a “holiday errand” feel as old-fashioned as the Sears catalog.

A New Research Stack Emerges

Insights pros will rely on:

• AI-moderated quick-turn qualitative

• Always-on insight communities

• Predictive foresight models

• Automated fraud detection

• Human-led interpretation, storytelling, and strategy

The work shifts from data collection to decision enablement.

Scrooge’s Lesson for Insights Teams

Like Scrooge waking up to a transformed world, insights pros must adapt to the accelerating pace of change.

Key Takeaways

• Historical norms can no longer predict holiday behavior.

• Hybrid methods meet the moment better than rigid traditional approaches.

• AI enhances research, but human interpretation remains essential.

• Predictive modeling is critical for navigating seasonal volatility.

• Storytelling is the most valuable currency in an age of information abundance.

The holidays aren’t simpler, but they are far richer territory for insights work.

A Holiday Message for the Insights Industry

As the year winds down, our three ghosts leave us with this:

Change is constant. Consumer rituals evolve. Technology accelerates it all.
But the heart of insights lies in understanding people, moments, and meaning, which remains as timeless as ever.

May your insights be bright, your models merry, and your understanding evergreen.
Happy holidays to the insights community.